Seat by Seat Betting Markets in Australian Federal Elections

Stream: Panel 54 - International Relations: Forecasting and Prediction 
Date: Tuesday, 27 September 2016
Time: 4.00 pm – 5.30 pm


at-by-seat betting markets in Australian Federal elections. Abstract: I assess the predictive performance of seat-by-seat betting markets in recent Australian Federal elections. Most of these seat-by-state markets appear to be very thinly traded and display little variation in prices and implied predictions over the course of an election campaign. Many marginal seats are called incorrectly, and some high-profile misses are documented. Comparisons with state-by-state markets for presidential elections in the United States provide a benchmark for assessing the forecasting performance of betting markets in Australian elections. Part of the panel on prediction and forecasting in the social sciences, applied to Australian politics


Simon Jackman (Presenter), US Studies Centre