Inside the mind of a fox: Observations on the methods, motivations, and ethos of superforecasters

Stream: Panel 54 - International Relations: Forecasting and Prediction 
Date: Tuesday, 27 September 2016
Time: 4.00 pm – 5.30 pm

Abstract

Using four years involvement with the Good Judgment Project, this presentation will provide practical insights into forecasting outcomes of global geopolitical events. Framed against Tetlock and Gardiner's 'Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters'* we review our experience as GJP 'superforecasters' and critically assess our individual performance. This will highlight some of the qualities supporting good (or super) forecasting, influences that impact decision-making as a forecaster, and motivations driving 'crowdsourced' participation. Further consideration is given to the forecasting experience from the Australian perspective, and interesting potential applications for local and regional issues. *(Superforecasters - the art and science of prediction; Tetlock, Philip E. and Gardiner, Dan; 2015.)

Author

Ross Slater (Presenter), Good Judgment Project